Even Now…Model Madness!

As frequently noted, close to “show time”, I try to blend the RUC, MM5 and GFS while closely watching the NAM. RUC: sleet to FZRA NW SC and SW NC by 9AM, SN into W/C NC & SW VA by 10AM. The NAM continues crushing precip with nearly nothing north of VA I-64…possible but think too supressed. MM5 gets north to VA I-66 bu nearly nothing for Metro DC and points north. NC gets accumulating SN in west while central and east goes FZRA…RA for SE and coastal areas. SN then moves north from second batch for PA, NY and New England (except RI/E MA) but not till Fri. GFS: widespread 1-3″ SN…more in NW NC/SW VA and Alleghany Highlands. Very tricky on temps as to when FZRA will beging. Precip early Thurs morning W NC, VA I-81 corridor by mid morning and spreading north and east by Noon. Looks like largest SN totals (3-4″) along Blue Ridge/Alleghanies from Harrisonburg, VA south to W NC mountains. Full update and discussion at Scott’s Blog Thursday morning as we now are now-casting this event. Have a good night.

Blog Updated

Quick update of Scott’s Blog discussion of upcoming event. http://www.midatlanticwx.com/blog.htm. Will update briefly here on “the feed” late tonight. Full discussion at the blog Thursday morning.

Model Alphabet Soup: MM5 till RUC, Dash of GFS

1/31 0Z Quickie: I do like the Euro (EC) this winter but we’re getting close and I like the Air Force MM5 model along the East for mixed precip. It continues pushing SN into W VA/NC before 9AM Thursday. Quick change to expansive FZRA (freezing rain) for NC. Mostly SN along/north of I-66/Beltway through BAL and PHI. Wednesday afternoon the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) becomes a prime time player. GFS is still jumpy but doesn’t seem to print out totals above 4-6 inches for Mid-Atlantic. Not a big snow storm…possibly similar to last week’s event. Blog update on Wednesday.

Scott’s Blog Update

Latest discussion Tuesday at 6PM. Next update on Wednesday.

Another winter Event Thurs-Friday

Another Clipper scooting off shore will produce SN across the Northeast tonight. Next storm comes from the south with FZRA/IP from interior SE (includes ATL) up into Carolinas by Thursday. SN to FZRA/IP for VA…SN interior NE…-SN closer to coast. Check Scott’s blog for more.

Testing New Newsfeed

We are now testing our new newsfeed…..

Winter Weather Thursday

Maybe winter wx on Thursday. Blog updating on Tuesday.